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Plateau United vs Go Round — NPFL 2019

Plateau United
Plateau United
FT
1 – 0
Go Round
Go Round
2/10/2019NPFLNPFL · Round 8Jos International Stadium (Jos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Plateau United65%
×Draw24%
Go Round12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plateau United
1.66
Go Round
0.55

Plateau United creates 202% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 11 away

creates per match

Plateau United
1.76
Go Round
0.64

allows per match

Plateau United
0.45
Go Round
1.55

finishing

Plateau United+0.00on par
Go Round+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plateau United ↓

Go Round →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Plateau United or draw
88%
Plateau United or Go Round
76%
Draw or Go Round
35%

Winning margin

Plateau United wins by 2+
37%
Go Round wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Plateau United 1+ goals
81%
Plateau United 2+ goals
49%
Plateau United 3+ goals
23%
Go Round 1+ goals
42%
Go Round 2+ goals
11%
Go Round 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Plateau United (draw refunded)
84%
Go Round (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plateau United at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.45 · 128 matches

Go Round away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plateau United attack 1.76 + Go Round defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.66

Go Round attack 0.64 + Plateau United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Plateau United scores more
65%
level
24%
Go Round scores more
12%

Plateau United at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Plateau United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Plateau United 1–0 Go Round

Plateau United beat Go Round 1-0 in NPFL on February 10, 2019.

The match was played at Jos International Stadium (Jos).