Plateau United 1–2 Akwa United: Result & Stats

Plateau United

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Akwa United

3/24/2024

NPFL · Round 27Jos International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Plateau United61%

×Draw26%

Akwa United14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Plateau UnitedExpected goals in this matchAkwa United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.56

Plateau United

1.52

Akwa United

0.56

Plateau United creates 171% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 111 away

1.76

creates per match

0.66

0.45

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Plateau United

1.76

Akwa United

0.66

allows per match

Plateau United

0.45

Akwa United

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plateau United+0.00on par

Akwa United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plateau United ↓

Akwa United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Plateau United or draw

86%

Plateau United or Akwa United

74%

Draw or Akwa United

39%

Winning margin

Plateau United wins by 2+

32%

Akwa United wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Plateau United 1+ goals

78%

Plateau United 2+ goals

45%

Plateau United 3+ goals

20%

Akwa United 1+ goals

43%

Akwa United 2+ goals

11%

Akwa United 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Plateau United (draw refunded)

82%

Akwa United (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plateau United at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.45 · 128 matches

Akwa United away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.28 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plateau United attack 1.76 + Akwa United defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.52

Akwa United attack 0.66 + Plateau United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Plateau United scores more

61%

level

26%

Akwa United scores more

14%

Plateau United at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Plateau United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff