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Plateau United vs Adamawa United — NPFL 2019

Plateau United
Plateau United
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Adamawa United
Adamawa United
W. Jimoh 90+1'
I. Kingsley 89'
A. Gyang 45' (pen)
1/17/2021NPFLNPFL · Round 5Jos International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Plateau United78%
×Draw17%
Adamawa United5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plateau United
2.06
Adamawa United
0.34

Plateau United creates 506% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 31 away

creates per match

Plateau United
1.76
Adamawa United
0.23

allows per match

Plateau United
0.45
Adamawa United
2.35

finishing

Plateau United+0.00on par
Adamawa United+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plateau United ↓

Adamawa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–019%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Plateau United or draw
95%
Plateau United or Adamawa United
83%
Draw or Adamawa United
22%

Winning margin

Plateau United wins by 2+
52%
Adamawa United wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Plateau United 1+ goals
87%
Plateau United 2+ goals
61%
Plateau United 3+ goals
34%
Adamawa United 1+ goals
29%
Adamawa United 2+ goals
5%
Adamawa United 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Plateau United (draw refunded)
94%
Adamawa United (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plateau United at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.45 · 128 matches

Adamawa United away — creates 0.23, concedes 2.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plateau United attack 1.76 + Adamawa United defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.06

Adamawa United attack 0.23 + Plateau United defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Plateau United scores more
78%
level
17%
Adamawa United scores more
5%

Plateau United at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Plateau United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'
45'
A. GyangPenalty
84'
85'
89'
I. Kingsley
90+1'
W. Jimoh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Plateau United vs Adamawa United

Plateau United beat Adamawa United 3-0 in NPFL on January 17, 2021.

Goals: A. Gyang (45' pen), I. Kingsley (89'), W. Jimoh (90+1').

The match was played at Jos International Stadium in Jos.