Plasencia 1–2 Villanovense: Result & Stats

Plasencia

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Villanovense

Vitolo 16'

Óscar Martín 34'

Belencoso 29'

10/31/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 11Ciudad Deportiva de Plasencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Plasencia36%

×Draw29%

Villanovense34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlasenciaExpected goals in this matchVillanovense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.07

Plasencia

1.11

Villanovense

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 31 away

1.25

creates per match

1.23

0.91

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Plasencia

1.25

Villanovense

1.23

allows per match

Plasencia

0.91

Villanovense

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plasencia+0.00on par

Villanovense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plasencia ↓

Villanovense →

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Plasencia or draw

66%

Plasencia or Villanovense

71%

Draw or Villanovense

64%

Winning margin

Plasencia wins by 2+

15%

Villanovense wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Plasencia 1+ goals

67%

Plasencia 2+ goals

30%

Plasencia 3+ goals

10%

Villanovense 1+ goals

66%

Villanovense 2+ goals

29%

Villanovense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Plasencia (draw refunded)

51%

Villanovense (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Plasencia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.91 · 57 matches

Villanovense away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Plasencia attack 1.25 + Villanovense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.11

Villanovense attack 1.23 + Plasencia defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Plasencia scores more

36%

level

29%

Villanovense scores more

34%

Plasencia at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Plasencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Vitolo

29'

Belencoso

34'

Óscar Martín

70'

Juan Caballero← Oscar Alejo

73'

Álex Trujillo← Mauricio Franco

77'

Carlos Huertas← Gonzalo Rodriguez

80'

José Ángel← Dani Martínez

83'

Juanpe← Óscar Martín

88'

David Barca← Belencoso

Plasencia

Villanovense

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Daniel Simón

70'▲Juan Caballero←▼Oscar Alejo

73'▲Álex Trujillo←▼Mauricio Franco

77'▲Carlos Huertas←▼Gonzalo Rodriguez

Plasencia substitutes

CaballeroTrujilloHuertas

Manager: José Masegosa

80'▲José Ángel←▼Dani Martínez

83'▲Juanpe←▼Óscar Martín

88'▲David Barca←▼Belencoso

Villanovense substitutes

ÁngelJuanpeBarca