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Plasencia vs Jerez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Plasencia
Plasencia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Jerez
Jerez
9/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 5Ciudad Deportiva de Plasencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Plasencia45%
×Draw27%
Jerez28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plasencia
1.40
Jerez
1.03

Plasencia creates 36% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 107 away

creates per match

Plasencia
1.25
Jerez
1.15

allows per match

Plasencia
0.91
Jerez
1.54

finishing

Plasencia+0.00on par
Jerez+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plasencia ↓

Jerez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Plasencia or draw
72%
Plasencia or Jerez
73%
Draw or Jerez
55%

Winning margin

Plasencia wins by 2+
22%
Jerez wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Plasencia 1+ goals
75%
Plasencia 2+ goals
41%
Plasencia 3+ goals
17%
Jerez 1+ goals
64%
Jerez 2+ goals
28%
Jerez 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Plasencia (draw refunded)
62%
Jerez (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plasencia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.91 · 57 matches

Jerez away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plasencia attack 1.25 + Jerez defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.40

Jerez attack 1.15 + Plasencia defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Plasencia scores more
45%
level
27%
Jerez scores more
28%

Plasencia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Plasencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Plasencia vs Jerez

Jerez beat Plasencia 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Plasencia in Plasencia.