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Jerez vs Plasencia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Jerez
Jerez
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Plasencia
Plasencia
2/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 24Estadio Manuel Calzado Galván

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Jerez51%
×Draw27%
Plasencia22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jerez
1.44
Plasencia
0.85

Jerez creates 69% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 57 away

creates per match

Jerez
1.49
Plasencia
0.86

allows per match

Jerez
0.84
Plasencia
1.40

finishing

Jerez+0.00on par
Plasencia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jerez ↓

Plasencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Jerez or draw
78%
Jerez or Plasencia
73%
Draw or Plasencia
49%

Winning margin

Jerez wins by 2+
25%
Plasencia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jerez 1+ goals
76%
Jerez 2+ goals
42%
Jerez 3+ goals
18%
Plasencia 1+ goals
57%
Plasencia 2+ goals
21%
Plasencia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Jerez (draw refunded)
70%
Plasencia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jerez at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.84 · 109 matches

Plasencia away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jerez attack 1.49 + Plasencia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.44

Plasencia attack 0.86 + Jerez defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jerez scores more
51%
level
27%
Plasencia scores more
22%

Jerez at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jerez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Jerez 2–0 Plasencia

Jerez beat Plasencia 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Calzado Galván in Jerez de los Caballeros.