Plačkovica 0–1 Sloga Vinica: Result & Stats

Plačkovica

FT

0 – 1

Sloga Vinica

9/12/2020

Second League · East - 3Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Plačkovica45%

×Draw27%

Sloga Vinica28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlačkovicaExpected goals in this matchSloga Vinica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.04

Plačkovica

1.40

Sloga Vinica

1.04

Plačkovica creates 35% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 44 away

0.77

creates per match

0.77

1.32

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Plačkovica

0.77

Sloga Vinica

0.77

allows per match

Plačkovica

1.32

Sloga Vinica

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plačkovica+0.00on par

Sloga Vinica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plačkovica ↓

Sloga Vinica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Plačkovica or draw

72%

Plačkovica or Sloga Vinica

73%

Draw or Sloga Vinica

55%

Winning margin

Plačkovica wins by 2+

22%

Sloga Vinica wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Plačkovica 1+ goals

75%

Plačkovica 2+ goals

41%

Plačkovica 3+ goals

17%

Sloga Vinica 1+ goals

65%

Sloga Vinica 2+ goals

28%

Sloga Vinica 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Plačkovica (draw refunded)

62%

Sloga Vinica (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plačkovica at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

Sloga Vinica away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.02 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plačkovica attack 0.77 + Sloga Vinica defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sloga Vinica attack 0.77 + Plačkovica defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Plačkovica scores more

45%

level

27%

Sloga Vinica scores more

28%

Plačkovica at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Plačkovica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff