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Plačkovica vs Sasa — Second League 2019

Plačkovica
Plačkovica
FT
0 – 2
Sasa
Sasa
10/6/2019Second LeagueSecond League · East - 7Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Plačkovica36%
×Draw27%
Sasa37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plačkovica
1.23
Sasa
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 82 away

creates per match

Plačkovica
0.76
Sasa
1.26

allows per match

Plačkovica
1.29
Sasa
1.70

finishing

Plačkovica+0.00on par
Sasa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plačkovica ↓

Sasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Plačkovica or draw
63%
Plačkovica or Sasa
73%
Draw or Sasa
64%

Winning margin

Plačkovica wins by 2+
15%
Sasa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Plačkovica 1+ goals
71%
Plačkovica 2+ goals
35%
Plačkovica 3+ goals
13%
Sasa 1+ goals
72%
Sasa 2+ goals
36%
Sasa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Plačkovica (draw refunded)
49%
Sasa (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plačkovica at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Sasa away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.70 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plačkovica attack 0.76 + Sasa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sasa attack 1.26 + Plačkovica defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Plačkovica scores more
36%
level
27%
Sasa scores more
37%

Sasa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Plačkovica vs Sasa

Sasa beat Plačkovica 2-0 in Second League on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Radovish.