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Plačkovica vs Belasica — Second League 2019

Plačkovica
Plačkovica
FT
0 – 1
Belasica
Belasica
9/21/2019Second LeagueSecond League · East - 5Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Plačkovica26%
×Draw27%
Belasica46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Plačkovica
0.97
Belasica
1.38

Belasica creates 42% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 68 away

creates per match

Plačkovica
0.76
Belasica
1.46

allows per match

Plačkovica
1.29
Belasica
1.18

finishing

Plačkovica+0.00on par
Belasica+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plačkovica ↓

Belasica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Plačkovica or draw
54%
Plačkovica or Belasica
73%
Draw or Belasica
74%

Winning margin

Plačkovica wins by 2+
9%
Belasica wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Plačkovica 1+ goals
62%
Plačkovica 2+ goals
25%
Plačkovica 3+ goals
7%
Belasica 1+ goals
75%
Belasica 2+ goals
40%
Belasica 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Plačkovica (draw refunded)
36%
Belasica (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plačkovica at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Belasica away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plačkovica attack 0.76 + Belasica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.97

Belasica attack 1.46 + Plačkovica defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Plačkovica scores more
26%
level
27%
Belasica scores more
46%

Belasica at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Belasica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Plačkovica 0–1 Belasica

Belasica beat Plačkovica 1-0 in Second League on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Pehchevo.