Pknp 3–0 Petaling Jaya City: Result & Stats

Pknp

3 – 0

Petaling Jaya City

9/22/2019

Malaysia Cup · Group Stage - 6Mini Manjung Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pknp67%

×Draw20%

Petaling Jaya City13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PknpExpected goals in this matchPetaling Jaya City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.75

Pknp

2.00

Petaling Jaya City

0.75

Pknp creates 167% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

2.50

creates per match

0.50

1.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Pknp

2.50

Petaling Jaya City

0.50

allows per match

Pknp

1.00

Petaling Jaya City

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pknp+0.00on par

Petaling Jaya City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pknp ↓

Petaling Jaya City →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Pknp or draw

87%

Pknp or Petaling Jaya City

80%

Draw or Petaling Jaya City

33%

Winning margin

Pknp wins by 2+

41%

Petaling Jaya City wins by 2+

Team goals

Pknp 1+ goals

86%

Pknp 2+ goals

59%

Pknp 3+ goals

32%

Petaling Jaya City 1+ goals

53%

Petaling Jaya City 2+ goals

17%

Petaling Jaya City 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Pknp (draw refunded)

84%

Petaling Jaya City (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pknp at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Petaling Jaya City away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pknp attack 2.50 + Petaling Jaya City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Petaling Jaya City attack 0.50 + Pknp defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Pknp scores more

67%

level

20%

Petaling Jaya City scores more

13%

Pknp at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Pknp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff