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Pknp vs Kedah — Malaysia Cup 2019

Pknp
Pknp
FT
1 – 2
Kedah
Kedahadvanced
9/25/2019Malaysia CupMalaysia Cup · Quarter-finalsMini Manjung Stadium (Manjung)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pknp56%
×Draw20%
Kedah23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pknp
2.21
Kedah
1.36

Pknp creates 62% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

creates per match

Pknp
2.50
Kedah
1.73

allows per match

Pknp
1.00
Kedah
1.91

finishing

Pknp+0.00on par
Kedah+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pknp ↓

Kedah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Pknp or draw
77%
Pknp or Kedah
80%
Draw or Kedah
44%

Winning margin

Pknp wins by 2+
35%
Kedah wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pknp 1+ goals
89%
Pknp 2+ goals
65%
Pknp 3+ goals
38%
Kedah 1+ goals
74%
Kedah 2+ goals
39%
Kedah 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Pknp (draw refunded)
71%
Kedah (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pknp at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Kedah away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pknp attack 2.50 + Kedah defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.21

Kedah attack 1.73 + Pknp defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Pknp scores more
56%
level
20%
Kedah scores more
23%

Pknp at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pknp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malaysia Cup: Pknp 1–2 Kedah

Kedah beat Pknp 2-1 in Malaysia Cup on September 25, 2019.

The match was played at Mini Manjung Stadium (Manjung).