PKKU 5–1 Vaajakoski: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

PKKU

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Vaajakoski

A. Lindholm 62' (pen), 14', 13'

E. Lappalainen 50'

N. Leinonen 11'

R. Häkkinen 45+1'

9/14/2024

Ykkönen · Relegation Round - 1Tuusulan Urheilukeskus Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

PKKU59%

×Draw19%

Vaajakoski22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PKKUExpected goals in this matchVaajakoski

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

1.38

PKKU

2.36

Vaajakoski

1.38

PKKU creates 71% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 14 away

1.72

creates per match

1.07

1.69

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

PKKU

1.72

Vaajakoski

1.07

allows per match

PKKU

1.69

Vaajakoski

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PKKU+0.00on par

Vaajakoski+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PKKU ↓

Vaajakoski →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

PKKU or draw

78%

PKKU or Vaajakoski

81%

Draw or Vaajakoski

41%

Winning margin

PKKU wins by 2+

37%

Vaajakoski wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

PKKU 1+ goals

90%

PKKU 2+ goals

68%

PKKU 3+ goals

41%

Vaajakoski 1+ goals

75%

Vaajakoski 2+ goals

40%

Vaajakoski 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

PKKU (draw refunded)

73%

Vaajakoski (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PKKU at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.69 · 36 matches

Vaajakoski away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PKKU attack 1.72 + Vaajakoski defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.36

Vaajakoski attack 1.07 + PKKU defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

PKKU scores more

59%

level

19%

Vaajakoski scores more

22%

PKKU at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "PKKU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

13'

14'

35'

45+1'

45+1'

50'

62'

62'

A. LindholmPenalty

63'

A. Zahedi← N. Leinonen

63'

N. Umetsu← A. Lindholm

63'

H. Hahl← J. Virtanen

63'

T. Koskiahde← L. Suutarinen

69'

A. Zahedi

69'

T. Koskiahde

70'

R. Honko← S. Salim

75'

N. Lokake← S. Tiainen

79'

M. Kobayashi← R. Mäkilä

87'

R. Hakkinen

PKKU

Vaajakoski

13

6

3

22

27

▼

19

20

17

16

▼

Salim

9

⚽

Häkkinen

31

Kovaqi

33

⚽

Lappalain

12

Volotinen

5

▼

Mäkilä

31

Romppanen

6

Azemi

24

⚽

▼

Leinonen

9

⚽3

▼

Lindholm

17

▼

Tiainen

77

Musa

11

▼

Virtanen

3

Formisano

Manager: R. Hakanpää

63'▲A. Zahedi←▼N. Leinonen

63'▲N. Umetsu←▼A. Lindholm

63'▲H. Hahl←▼J. Virtanen

75'▲N. Lokake←▼S. Tiainen

79'▲M. Kobayashi←▼R. Mäkilä

PKKU substitutes

4Zahedi14Umetsu15Hahl36Lokake13Kobayashi8Pllana

Manager: A. Neuvonen

63'▲T. Koskiahde←▼L. Suutarinen

70'▲R. Honko←▼S. Salim

Vaajakoski substitutes

32Koskiahde29Honko1Poltto

Ykkönen: PKKU 5–1 Vaajakoski

PKKU beat Vaajakoski 5-1 in Ykkönen on September 14, 2024.

Goals: N. Leinonen (11'), A. Lindholm (13', 14', 62' pen), R. Häkkinen (45+1'), E. Lappalainen (50').

The match was played at Tuusulan Urheilukeskus Stadion in Tuusula.

PKKU vs Vaajakoski — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ykkönen: PKKU 5–1 Vaajakoski