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PKKU vs LPS — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

PKKU
PKKU
FT
3 – 2
LPS
LPS
9/1/2018Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Round 19Kalevan Urheilupuisto nurmi (Kerava)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

PKKU63%
×Draw17%
LPS20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PKKU
2.90
LPS
1.63

PKKU creates 78% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 11 away

creates per match

PKKU
1.98
LPS
1.45

allows per match

PKKU
1.80
LPS
3.82

finishing

PKKU+0.00on par
LPS+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PKKU ↓

LPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

PKKU or draw
80%
PKKU or LPS
83%
Draw or LPS
37%

Winning margin

PKKU wins by 2+
43%
LPS wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

PKKU 1+ goals
94%
PKKU 2+ goals
78%
PKKU 3+ goals
54%
LPS 1+ goals
80%
LPS 2+ goals
48%
LPS 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

PKKU (draw refunded)
76%
LPS (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PKKU at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.80 · 44 matches

LPS away — creates 1.45, concedes 3.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PKKU attack 1.98 + LPS defence 3.82 → ÷2 → 2.90

LPS attack 1.45 + PKKU defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

PKKU scores more
63%
level
17%
LPS scores more
20%

PKKU at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "PKKU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: PKKU 3–2 LPS

PKKU beat LPS 3-2 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on September 1, 2018.

The match was played at Kalevan Urheilupuisto nurmi (Kerava).