PK-37 0–1 Tampere United: Result & Stats

PK-37

FT

0 – 1

Tampere United

8/26/2018

Kakkonen - Lohko C · Round 18Sankariniemen kenttä (Iisalmi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

PK-3746%

×Draw24%

Tampere United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PK-37Expected goals in this matchTampere United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.29

PK-37

1.66

Tampere United

1.29

PK-37 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

1.41

creates per match

0.82

1.77

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

PK-37

1.41

Tampere United

0.82

allows per match

PK-37

1.77

Tampere United

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PK-37+0.00on par

Tampere United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PK-37 ↓

Tampere United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

PK-37 or draw

70%

PK-37 or Tampere United

76%

Draw or Tampere United

54%

Winning margin

PK-37 wins by 2+

24%

Tampere United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

PK-37 1+ goals

81%

PK-37 2+ goals

49%

PK-37 3+ goals

23%

Tampere United 1+ goals

72%

Tampere United 2+ goals

37%

Tampere United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

PK-37 (draw refunded)

61%

Tampere United (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PK-37 at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.77 · 22 matches

Tampere United away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PK-37 attack 1.41 + Tampere United defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.66

Tampere United attack 0.82 + PK-37 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

PK-37 scores more

46%

level

24%

Tampere United scores more

30%

PK-37 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "PK-37 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff