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PK-37 vs Reipas — Suomen Cup 2018

PK-37
PK-37
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Reipas
Reipas
5/1/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundKankaan Liikuntapuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

PK-3712%
×Draw15%
Reipas73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PK-37
1.17
Reipas
3.00

Reipas creates 156% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

PK-37
2.00
Reipas
3.67

allows per match

PK-37
2.33
Reipas
0.33

finishing

PK-37+0.00on par
Reipas+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PK-37 ↓

Reipas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

PK-37 or draw
27%
PK-37 or Reipas
85%
Draw or Reipas
88%

Winning margin

PK-37 wins by 2+
4%
Reipas wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

PK-37 1+ goals
69%
PK-37 2+ goals
33%
PK-37 3+ goals
11%
Reipas 1+ goals
95%
Reipas 2+ goals
79%
Reipas 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

PK-37 (draw refunded)
14%
Reipas (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PK-37 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Reipas away — creates 3.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PK-37 attack 2.00 + Reipas defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Reipas attack 3.67 + PK-37 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

PK-37 scores more
12%
level
15%
Reipas scores more
73%

Reipas at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Reipas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PK-37 1 – 3 Reipas

Reipas beat PK-37 3-1 in Suomen Cup on May 1, 2023.

The match was played at Kankaan Liikuntapuisto in Iisalmi.