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PK-37 vs MiPK — Suomen Cup 2018

PK-37
PK-37
FT
3 – 2
MiPK
MiPK
4/7/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundTanhulan TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

PK-3716%
×Draw16%
MiPK68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PK-37
1.40
MiPK
2.96

MiPK creates 111% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

PK-37
2.00
MiPK
3.60

allows per match

PK-37
2.33
MiPK
0.80

finishing

PK-37+0.00on par
MiPK+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PK-37 ↓

MiPK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

PK-37 or draw
32%
PK-37 or MiPK
84%
Draw or MiPK
84%

Winning margin

PK-37 wins by 2+
6%
MiPK wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

PK-37 1+ goals
75%
PK-37 2+ goals
41%
PK-37 3+ goals
17%
MiPK 1+ goals
95%
MiPK 2+ goals
79%
MiPK 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

PK-37 (draw refunded)
19%
MiPK (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PK-37 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

MiPK away — creates 3.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PK-37 attack 2.00 + MiPK defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

MiPK attack 3.60 + PK-37 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

PK-37 scores more
16%
level
16%
MiPK scores more
68%

MiPK at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "MiPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PK-37 3 – 2 MiPK

PK-37 beat MiPK 3-2 in Suomen Cup on April 7, 2023.

The match was played at Tanhulan TN in Toivala.