PK-35 0–2 JIPPO: Result & Stats | Ykkösliiga

PK-35

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

JIPPO

Victor de Paula 74'

Y. Kikuchi 23' (pen)

7/20/2024

Ykkösliiga · Round 17Algeco Areena TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

PK-3535%

×Draw27%

JIPPO39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PK-35Expected goals in this matchJIPPO

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.31

PK-35

1.23

JIPPO

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 35 away

1.40

creates per match

1.54

1.09

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

PK-35

1.40

JIPPO

1.54

allows per match

PK-35

1.09

JIPPO

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PK-35+0.00on par

JIPPO+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PK-35 ↓

JIPPO →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

PK-35 or draw

61%

PK-35 or JIPPO

73%

Draw or JIPPO

65%

Winning margin

PK-35 wins by 2+

15%

JIPPO wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

PK-35 1+ goals

71%

PK-35 2+ goals

35%

PK-35 3+ goals

13%

JIPPO 1+ goals

73%

JIPPO 2+ goals

38%

JIPPO 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

PK-35 (draw refunded)

47%

JIPPO (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PK-35 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

JIPPO away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PK-35 attack 1.40 + JIPPO defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

JIPPO attack 1.54 + PK-35 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

PK-35 scores more

35%

level

27%

JIPPO scores more

39%

JIPPO at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "JIPPO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

Y. KikuchiPenalty

36'

L. Forss← J. Watanabe

46'

M. Lassoued← S. Sillah

46'

M. Coker← Tiquinho

56'

J. Pikkuhookana

60'

T. Smith← E. Tanninen

60'

E. Viitaniemi← Y. Ohashi

60'

65'

74'

75'

78'

J. Sundman← João Costa

78'

X. Gela← R. Lehtonen

78'

K. Räsänen← J. Pikkuhookana

86'

S. Saarenkunnas← Y. Kikuchi

90'

F. Okoye

90'

PK-35

JIPPO

1

Piirainen

2

⚽

Paula

5

Huhtala

24

Haataja

41

⚽

▼

Kikuchi

3

▼

Ohashi

6

▼

Watanabe

21

Tykkyläin

9

Eerola

4

▼

Pihlaja

40

▼

Tanninen

25

Viljala

23

▼

Sillah

4

Karjalain

6

Okoye

88

▼

Pikkuhook

13

▼

Lehtonen

22

Lokake

24

Abdi

16

▼

Costa

20

Nakanishi

14

▼

Tiquinho

Manager: Tiago Santos

46'▲M. Lassoued←▼S. Sillah

46'▲M. Coker←▼Tiquinho

78'▲J. Sundman←▼João Costa

78'▲X. Gela←▼R. Lehtonen

78'▲K. Räsänen←▼J. Pikkuhookana

PK-35 substitutes

29Lassoued15Coker3Sundman5Gela21Räsänen30Abdi

Manager: M. Hallikainen

36'▲L. Forss←▼J. Watanabe

60'▲T. Smith←▼E. Tanninen

60'▲E. Viitaniemi←▼Y. Ohashi

60'▲J. Kiuru←▼O. Pihlaja

86'▲S. Saarenkunnas←▼Y. Kikuchi

JIPPO substitutes

20Forss8Smith25Viitaniemi39Kiuru26Saarenkunnas23Kela33Linnas

PK-35 0 – 2 JIPPO

JIPPO beat PK-35 2-0 in Ykkösliiga on July 20, 2024.

Goals: Y. Kikuchi (23' pen), Victor de Paula (74').

The match was played at Algeco Areena TN in Helsinki.

PK-35 vs JIPPO — Ykkösliiga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

PK-35 0 – 2 JIPPO