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PK-35 vs HIFK Helsinki — Friendlies Clubs 2026

PK-35
PK-35
CANC
17:30
HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
3/16/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Talin jalkapallohalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

PK-3537%
×Draw27%
HIFK Helsinki36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PK-35
1.27
HIFK Helsinki
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

PK-35
1.33
HIFK Helsinki
1.80

allows per match

PK-35
0.67
HIFK Helsinki
1.20

finishing

PK-35+0.00on par
HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PK-35 ↓

HIFK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

PK-35 or draw
64%
PK-35 or HIFK Helsinki
73%
Draw or HIFK Helsinki
63%

Winning margin

PK-35 wins by 2+
16%
HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

PK-35 1+ goals
72%
PK-35 2+ goals
36%
PK-35 3+ goals
14%
HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
71%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
35%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

PK-35 (draw refunded)
51%
HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PK-35 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

HIFK Helsinki away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PK-35 attack 1.33 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.80 + PK-35 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

PK-35 scores more
37%
level
27%
HIFK Helsinki scores more
36%

PK-35 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "PK-35 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: PK-35 host HIFK Helsinki

March 16, 2024: PK-35 take on HIFK Helsinki in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

PK-35 host HIFK Helsinki at Talin jalkapallohalli.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.