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PK-35 vs Gnistan — Ykkönen 2018

PK-35
PK-35
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gnistan
Gnistan
10/1/2022YkkönenYkkönen · Relegation Round - 2MagneCit Areena TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

PK-3545%
×Draw24%
Gnistan32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PK-35
1.71
Gnistan
1.40

PK-35 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 51 away

creates per match

PK-35
1.59
Gnistan
1.57

allows per match

PK-35
1.22
Gnistan
1.82

finishing

PK-35+0.00on par
Gnistan+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PK-35 ↓

Gnistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

PK-35 or draw
68%
PK-35 or Gnistan
76%
Draw or Gnistan
55%

Winning margin

PK-35 wins by 2+
24%
Gnistan wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

PK-35 1+ goals
82%
PK-35 2+ goals
51%
PK-35 3+ goals
24%
Gnistan 1+ goals
75%
Gnistan 2+ goals
41%
Gnistan 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

PK-35 (draw refunded)
59%
Gnistan (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PK-35 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

Gnistan away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.82 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PK-35 attack 1.59 + Gnistan defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.71

Gnistan attack 1.57 + PK-35 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

PK-35 scores more
45%
level
24%
Gnistan scores more
32%

PK-35 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "PK-35 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PK-35 vs Gnistan

PK-35 beat Gnistan 1-0 in Ykkönen on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at MagneCit Areena TN in Helsinki.