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PK-35 vs Gnistan — Friendlies Clubs 2026

PK-35
PK-35
FT
2 – 2
Gnistan
Gnistan
3/8/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Pajulahden Urheiluopisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

PK-3558%
×Draw24%
Gnistan18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PK-35
1.71
Gnistan
0.83

PK-35 creates 106% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

PK-35
1.33
Gnistan
1.00

allows per match

PK-35
0.67
Gnistan
2.09

finishing

PK-35+0.00on par
Gnistan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PK-35 ↓

Gnistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

PK-35 or draw
82%
PK-35 or Gnistan
76%
Draw or Gnistan
42%

Winning margin

PK-35 wins by 2+
33%
Gnistan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

PK-35 1+ goals
82%
PK-35 2+ goals
51%
PK-35 3+ goals
24%
Gnistan 1+ goals
56%
Gnistan 2+ goals
20%
Gnistan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

PK-35 (draw refunded)
76%
Gnistan (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PK-35 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Gnistan away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PK-35 attack 1.33 + Gnistan defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.71

Gnistan attack 1.00 + PK-35 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

PK-35 scores more
58%
level
24%
Gnistan scores more
18%

PK-35 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "PK-35 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: PK-35 2–2 Gnistan

PK-35 and Gnistan drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Pajulahden Urheiluopisto in Pajulahti.