PK-35 Helsinki W 0–1 VIFK W: Result & Stats

PK-35 Helsinki W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

VIFK W

S. Matikainen 53'

5/22/2025

Kansallinen Liiga · Round 5Mustapekka Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

PK-35 Helsinki W66%

×Draw18%

VIFK W16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PK-35 Helsinki WExpected goals in this matchVIFK W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.11

PK-35 Helsinki W

2.44

VIFK W

1.11

PK-35 Helsinki W creates 120% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 18 away

1.22

creates per match

0.39

1.83

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

PK-35 Helsinki W

1.22

VIFK W

0.39

allows per match

PK-35 Helsinki W

1.83

VIFK W

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PK-35 Helsinki W+0.00on par

VIFK W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PK-35 Helsinki W ↓

VIFK W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

PK-35 Helsinki W or draw

84%

PK-35 Helsinki W or VIFK W

82%

Draw or VIFK W

34%

Winning margin

PK-35 Helsinki W wins by 2+

44%

VIFK W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

PK-35 Helsinki W 1+ goals

91%

PK-35 Helsinki W 2+ goals

70%

PK-35 Helsinki W 3+ goals

43%

VIFK W 1+ goals

67%

VIFK W 2+ goals

30%

VIFK W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

PK-35 Helsinki W (draw refunded)

81%

VIFK W (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PK-35 Helsinki W at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.83 · 64 matches

VIFK W away — creates 0.39, concedes 3.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PK-35 Helsinki W attack 1.22 + VIFK W defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.44

VIFK W attack 0.39 + PK-35 Helsinki W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

PK-35 Helsinki W scores more

66%

level

18%

VIFK W scores more

16%

PK-35 Helsinki W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "PK-35 Helsinki W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

S. Matikainen

54'

M. Grönberg← S. Velez

58'

E. Näsman← S. Matikainen

65'

A. Tanninen← J. Rita

65'

S. Hassinen← H. Laurinkoski

65'

S. Kärkkäinen← L. Bethea

74'

H. Leppämäki← P. Tavi

86'

K. Rehn← E. Malviniemi

90+4'

Fanny Lindholm← N. Håkans

PK-35

VIFK

99

2

3

5

23

9

⚽

▼

Matikaine

8

▼

Håkans

14

Vliet

4

Yoon-Ju

18

▼

31

12

26

3

24

8

6

▼

Rita

80

Kato

7

▼

Tavi

77

▼

Velez

10

▼

Laurinkos

30

▼

Bethea

Manager: Milene Ramos

54'▲M. Grönberg←▼S. Velez

65'▲A. Tanninen←▼J. Rita

65'▲S. Hassinen←▼H. Laurinkoski

65'▲S. Kärkkäinen←▼L. Bethea

74'▲H. Leppämäki←▼P. Tavi

PK-35 Helsinki W substitutes

66Grönberg11Tanninen16Hassinen25Kärkkäinen9Leppämäki17Sjöman20Harmaala21Hausen23Grönlund

Manager: T. Kärkkäinen

58'▲E. Näsman←▼S. Matikainen

86'▲K. Rehn←▼E. Malviniemi

90+4'▲Fanny Lindholm←▼N. Håkans

VIFK W substitutes

19Näsman20Rehn24Lindholm13Rosenström32Moisio90Kolu

Kansallinen Liiga: PK-35 Helsinki W 0–1 VIFK W

VIFK W beat PK-35 Helsinki W 1-0 in Kansallinen Liiga on May 22, 2025.

Goals: S. Matikainen (53').

The match was played at Mustapekka Areena in Helsinki.

PK-35 Helsinki W vs VIFK W — Kansallinen Liiga 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Kansallinen Liiga: PK-35 Helsinki W 0–1 VIFK W