PK-35 Helsinki W 0–0 PK-35 Vantaa W: Result & Stats

PK-35 Helsinki W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

PK-35 Vantaa W

4/19/2024

Kansallinen Liiga · Round 2Algeco Areena TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

PK-35 Helsinki W40%

×Draw23%

PK-35 Vantaa W38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PK-35 Helsinki WExpected goals in this matchPK-35 Vantaa W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.68

PK-35 Helsinki W

1.73

PK-35 Vantaa W

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 73 away

1.22

creates per match

1.52

1.83

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

PK-35 Helsinki W

1.22

PK-35 Vantaa W

1.52

allows per match

PK-35 Helsinki W

1.83

PK-35 Vantaa W

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PK-35 Helsinki W+0.00on par

PK-35 Vantaa W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PK-35 Helsinki W ↓

PK-35 Vantaa W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

PK-35 Helsinki W or draw

62%

PK-35 Helsinki W or PK-35 Vantaa W

77%

Draw or PK-35 Vantaa W

60%

Winning margin

PK-35 Helsinki W wins by 2+

20%

PK-35 Vantaa W wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

PK-35 Helsinki W 1+ goals

82%

PK-35 Helsinki W 2+ goals

52%

PK-35 Helsinki W 3+ goals

25%

PK-35 Vantaa W 1+ goals

81%

PK-35 Vantaa W 2+ goals

50%

PK-35 Vantaa W 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

PK-35 Helsinki W (draw refunded)

51%

PK-35 Vantaa W (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PK-35 Helsinki W at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.83 · 64 matches

PK-35 Vantaa W away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.25 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PK-35 Helsinki W attack 1.22 + PK-35 Vantaa W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.73

PK-35 Vantaa W attack 1.52 + PK-35 Helsinki W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

PK-35 Helsinki W scores more

40%

level

23%

PK-35 Vantaa W scores more

38%

PK-35 Helsinki W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "PK-35 Helsinki W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

E. Lemettinen← S. Kärkkäinen

65'

P. Pisilä← I. Martikainen

65'

S. Hassinen← A. Harmaala

65'

I. Värri← Katja Hakala

85'

H. Koskinen← P. Tavi

86'

V. Moilanen← E. Koivu

PK-35

1

26

19

2

5

8

9

23

11

29

▼

20

12

3

24

2

25

▼

Kärkkäine

20

Oi

6

Rita

14

▼

Martikain

9

▼

Hakala

7

▼

Tavi

28

▼

Harmaala

Manager: Diogo Pinto

46'▲E. Lemettinen←▼S. Kärkkäinen

65'▲P. Pisilä←▼I. Martikainen

65'▲S. Hassinen←▼A. Harmaala

65'▲I. Värri←▼Katja Hakala

85'▲H. Koskinen←▼P. Tavi

PK-35 Helsinki W substitutes

22Lemettinen10Pisilä16Hassinen18Värri27Koskinen1Vidgren4Juntunen

Manager: J. Väisänen

86'▲V. Moilanen←▼E. Koivu

PK-35 Vantaa W substitutes

22Moilanen12Suni14Arifi27Tolonen30Laitila

Match Recap: PK-35 Helsinki W vs PK-35 Vantaa W

PK-35 Helsinki W and PK-35 Vantaa W drew 0-0 in Kansallinen Liiga on April 19, 2024.

The match was played at Algeco Areena TN in Helsinki.

PK-35 Helsinki W vs PK-35 Vantaa W — Kansallinen Liiga 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: PK-35 Helsinki W vs PK-35 Vantaa W