PK-35 Helsinki W 0–2 Åland United W: Result & Stats

PK-35 Helsinki W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Åland United W

K. Kirpu 42'

7/19/2025

Kansallinen Liiga · Round 11Mustapekka Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

PK-35 Helsinki W25%

×Draw22%

Åland United W53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PK-35 Helsinki WExpected goals in this matchÅland United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

2.03

PK-35 Helsinki W

1.33

Åland United W

2.03

Åland United W creates 53% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 73 away

1.22

creates per match

2.23

1.83

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

PK-35 Helsinki W

1.22

Åland United W

2.23

allows per match

PK-35 Helsinki W

1.83

Åland United W

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PK-35 Helsinki W+0.00on par

Åland United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PK-35 Helsinki W ↓

Åland United W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

PK-35 Helsinki W or draw

47%

PK-35 Helsinki W or Åland United W

78%

Draw or Åland United W

75%

Winning margin

PK-35 Helsinki W wins by 2+

11%

Åland United W wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

PK-35 Helsinki W 1+ goals

74%

PK-35 Helsinki W 2+ goals

38%

PK-35 Helsinki W 3+ goals

15%

Åland United W 1+ goals

87%

Åland United W 2+ goals

60%

Åland United W 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

PK-35 Helsinki W (draw refunded)

32%

Åland United W (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PK-35 Helsinki W at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.83 · 64 matches

Åland United W away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.44 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PK-35 Helsinki W attack 1.22 + Åland United W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Åland United W attack 2.23 + PK-35 Helsinki W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

PK-35 Helsinki W scores more

25%

level

22%

Åland United W scores more

53%

Åland United W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Åland United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

K. Kirpu

PK-35

Åland

Manager: Milene Ramos

Manager: D. Norrmén

Kansallinen Liiga: PK-35 Helsinki W 0–2 Åland United W

Åland United W beat PK-35 Helsinki W 2-0 in Kansallinen Liiga on July 19, 2025.

Goals: K. Kirpu (42').

The match was played at Mustapekka Areena in Helsinki.

PK-35 Helsinki W vs Åland United W — Kansallinen Liiga 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Kansallinen Liiga: PK-35 Helsinki W 0–2 Åland United W