Pitu Guli 0–1 Tikveš: Result & Stats

Pitu Guli

FT

0 – 1

Tikveš

11/23/2019

Second League · East - 13Stadion Dojransko Ezero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Pitu Guli8%

×Draw16%

Tikveš76%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pitu GuliExpected goals in this matchTikveš

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.60

2.30

Pitu Guli

0.60

Tikveš

2.30

Tikveš creates 283% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 21 away

0.50

creates per match

1.48

3.13

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Pitu Guli

0.50

Tikveš

1.48

allows per match

Pitu Guli

3.13

Tikveš

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pitu Guli+0.00on par

Tikveš+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pitu Guli ↓

Tikveš →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–113%

0–215%

0–311%

0–46%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Pitu Guli or draw

24%

Pitu Guli or Tikveš

84%

Draw or Tikveš

92%

Winning margin

Pitu Guli wins by 2+

2%

Tikveš wins by 2+

52%

Team goals

Pitu Guli 1+ goals

45%

Pitu Guli 2+ goals

12%

Pitu Guli 3+ goals

2%

Tikveš 1+ goals

90%

Tikveš 2+ goals

67%

Tikveš 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Pitu Guli (draw refunded)

10%

Tikveš (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pitu Guli at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

Tikveš away — creates 1.48, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pitu Guli attack 0.50 + Tikveš defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.60

Tikveš attack 1.48 + Pitu Guli defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Pitu Guli scores more

8%

level

16%

Tikveš scores more

76%

Tikveš at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Tikveš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff