Pitu Guli 2–2 Pobeda: Result & Stats

Pitu Guli

FT

2 – 2

Pobeda

2/29/2020

Second League · East - 15Stadion Dojransko Ezero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Pitu Guli27%

×Draw22%

Pobeda50%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pitu GuliExpected goals in this matchPobeda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.91

Pitu Guli

1.35

Pobeda

1.91

Pobeda creates 41% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 67 away

0.50

creates per match

0.69

3.13

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Pitu Guli

0.50

Pobeda

0.69

allows per match

Pitu Guli

3.13

Pobeda

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pitu Guli+0.00on par

Pobeda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pitu Guli ↓

Pobeda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Pitu Guli or draw

50%

Pitu Guli or Pobeda

78%

Draw or Pobeda

73%

Winning margin

Pitu Guli wins by 2+

12%

Pobeda wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Pitu Guli 1+ goals

74%

Pitu Guli 2+ goals

39%

Pitu Guli 3+ goals

15%

Pobeda 1+ goals

85%

Pobeda 2+ goals

57%

Pobeda 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Pitu Guli (draw refunded)

35%

Pobeda (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pitu Guli at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

Pobeda away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.21 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pitu Guli attack 0.50 + Pobeda defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.35

Pobeda attack 0.69 + Pitu Guli defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pitu Guli scores more

27%

level

22%

Pobeda scores more

50%

Pobeda at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pobeda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff