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Pitu Guli vs Osogovo — Second League 2019

Pitu Guli
Pitu Guli
FT
1 – 3
Osogovo
Osogovo
10/26/2019Second LeagueSecond League · East - 10Stadion Dojransko Ezero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Pitu Guli21%
×Draw21%
Osogovo58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pitu Guli
1.18
Osogovo
2.08

Osogovo creates 76% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 66 away

creates per match

Pitu Guli
0.50
Osogovo
1.02

allows per match

Pitu Guli
3.13
Osogovo
1.86

finishing

Pitu Guli+0.00on par
Osogovo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pitu Guli ↓

Osogovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Pitu Guli or draw
42%
Pitu Guli or Osogovo
79%
Draw or Osogovo
79%

Winning margin

Pitu Guli wins by 2+
8%
Osogovo wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Pitu Guli 1+ goals
69%
Pitu Guli 2+ goals
33%
Pitu Guli 3+ goals
12%
Osogovo 1+ goals
87%
Osogovo 2+ goals
61%
Osogovo 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Pitu Guli (draw refunded)
27%
Osogovo (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pitu Guli at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

Osogovo away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.86 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pitu Guli attack 0.50 + Osogovo defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.18

Osogovo attack 1.02 + Pitu Guli defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Pitu Guli scores more
21%
level
21%
Osogovo scores more
58%

Osogovo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Osogovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pitu Guli vs Osogovo

Osogovo beat Pitu Guli 3-1 in Second League on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Dojransko Ezero in Nov Dojran.