Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2–1 San Diego Loyal

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

San Diego Loyal

6/24/2023

USL Championship · Round 19Highmark Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Pittsburgh Riverhounds47%

×Draw25%

San Diego Loyal28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pittsburgh RiverhoundsExpected goals in this matchSan Diego Loyal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.13

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

1.54

San Diego Loyal

1.13

Pittsburgh Riverhounds creates 36% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 59 away

1.61

creates per match

1.54

0.72

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

1.61

San Diego Loyal

1.54

allows per match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

0.72

San Diego Loyal

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pittsburgh Riverhounds+0.00on par

San Diego Loyal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pittsburgh Riverhounds ↓

San Diego Loyal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Pittsburgh Riverhounds or draw

72%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds or San Diego Loyal

75%

Draw or San Diego Loyal

53%

Winning margin

Pittsburgh Riverhounds wins by 2+

24%

San Diego Loyal wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1+ goals

79%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2+ goals

45%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3+ goals

20%

San Diego Loyal 1+ goals

68%

San Diego Loyal 2+ goals

31%

San Diego Loyal 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Pittsburgh Riverhounds (draw refunded)

63%

San Diego Loyal (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.72 · 134 matches

San Diego Loyal away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds attack 1.61 + San Diego Loyal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

San Diego Loyal attack 1.54 + Pittsburgh Riverhounds defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pittsburgh Riverhounds scores more

47%

level

25%

San Diego Loyal scores more

28%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pittsburgh Riverhounds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff