Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Saint Louis — USL Championship 2018

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Saint Louis
Saint Louis
4/20/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 12Highmark Stadium (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Pittsburgh Riverhounds55%
×Draw25%
Saint Louis20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.56
Saint Louis
0.82

Pittsburgh Riverhounds creates 90% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 45 away

creates per match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.61
Saint Louis
0.93

allows per match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
0.72
Saint Louis
1.51

finishing

Pittsburgh Riverhounds+0.00on par
Saint Louis+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pittsburgh Riverhounds ↓

Saint Louis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pittsburgh Riverhounds or draw
80%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds or Saint Louis
75%
Draw or Saint Louis
45%

Winning margin

Pittsburgh Riverhounds wins by 2+
29%
Saint Louis wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1+ goals
79%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2+ goals
46%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3+ goals
21%
Saint Louis 1+ goals
56%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
20%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Pittsburgh Riverhounds (draw refunded)
74%
Saint Louis (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.72 · 134 matches

Saint Louis away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds attack 1.61 + Saint Louis defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.56

Saint Louis attack 0.93 + Pittsburgh Riverhounds defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pittsburgh Riverhounds scores more
55%
level
25%
Saint Louis scores more
20%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Pittsburgh Riverhounds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0–0 Saint Louis

Pittsburgh Riverhounds and Saint Louis drew 0-0 in USL Championship on April 20, 2019.

The match was played at Highmark Stadium (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania).