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Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Philadelphia Union II — USL Championship 2018

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Philadelphia Union II
Philadelphia Union II
7/4/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 31Highmark Stadium (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Pittsburgh Riverhounds58%
×Draw22%
Philadelphia Union II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.90
Philadelphia Union II
1.01

Pittsburgh Riverhounds creates 88% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 43 away

creates per match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.61
Philadelphia Union II
1.30

allows per match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
0.72
Philadelphia Union II
2.19

finishing

Pittsburgh Riverhounds+0.00on par
Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pittsburgh Riverhounds ↓

Philadelphia Union II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Pittsburgh Riverhounds or draw
80%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds or Philadelphia Union II
78%
Draw or Philadelphia Union II
42%

Winning margin

Pittsburgh Riverhounds wins by 2+
34%
Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1+ goals
85%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2+ goals
56%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3+ goals
29%
Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals
64%
Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals
27%
Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pittsburgh Riverhounds (draw refunded)
75%
Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.72 · 134 matches

Philadelphia Union II away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds attack 1.61 + Philadelphia Union II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.90

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.30 + Pittsburgh Riverhounds defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Pittsburgh Riverhounds scores more
58%
level
22%
Philadelphia Union II scores more
20%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Pittsburgh Riverhounds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1–0 Philadelphia Union II

Pittsburgh Riverhounds beat Philadelphia Union II 1-0 in USL Championship on July 4, 2019.

The match was played at Highmark Stadium (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania).