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Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Ottawa Fury — USL Championship 2018

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ottawa Fury
Ottawa Fury
4/14/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 8Highmark Stadium (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pittsburgh Riverhounds54%
×Draw25%
Ottawa Fury21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.63
Ottawa Fury
0.92

Pittsburgh Riverhounds creates 77% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 34 away

creates per match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.61
Ottawa Fury
1.12

allows per match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
0.72
Ottawa Fury
1.65

finishing

Pittsburgh Riverhounds+0.00on par
Ottawa Fury+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pittsburgh Riverhounds ↓

Ottawa Fury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pittsburgh Riverhounds or draw
79%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds or Ottawa Fury
75%
Draw or Ottawa Fury
46%

Winning margin

Pittsburgh Riverhounds wins by 2+
29%
Ottawa Fury wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1+ goals
80%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2+ goals
48%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3+ goals
22%
Ottawa Fury 1+ goals
60%
Ottawa Fury 2+ goals
23%
Ottawa Fury 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pittsburgh Riverhounds (draw refunded)
72%
Ottawa Fury (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.72 · 134 matches

Ottawa Fury away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds attack 1.61 + Ottawa Fury defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

Ottawa Fury attack 1.12 + Pittsburgh Riverhounds defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Pittsburgh Riverhounds scores more
54%
level
25%
Ottawa Fury scores more
21%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Pittsburgh Riverhounds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1–0 Ottawa Fury

Pittsburgh Riverhounds beat Ottawa Fury 1-0 in USL Championship on April 14, 2018.

The match was played at Highmark Stadium (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania).