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Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Maryland Bobcats — US Open Cup 2018

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Maryland Bobcats
Maryland Bobcats
4/5/2022US Open CupUS Open Cup · 2nd RoundHighmark Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Pittsburgh Riverhounds64%
×Draw22%
Maryland Bobcats14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.88
Maryland Bobcats
0.75

Pittsburgh Riverhounds creates 151% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

creates per match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.50
Maryland Bobcats
1.00

allows per match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
0.50
Maryland Bobcats
2.25

finishing

Pittsburgh Riverhounds+0.00on par
Maryland Bobcats+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pittsburgh Riverhounds ↓

Maryland Bobcats →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pittsburgh Riverhounds or draw
86%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds or Maryland Bobcats
78%
Draw or Maryland Bobcats
36%

Winning margin

Pittsburgh Riverhounds wins by 2+
38%
Maryland Bobcats wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1+ goals
85%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2+ goals
56%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3+ goals
29%
Maryland Bobcats 1+ goals
53%
Maryland Bobcats 2+ goals
17%
Maryland Bobcats 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Pittsburgh Riverhounds (draw refunded)
82%
Maryland Bobcats (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Maryland Bobcats away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds attack 1.50 + Maryland Bobcats defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

Maryland Bobcats attack 1.00 + Pittsburgh Riverhounds defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Pittsburgh Riverhounds scores more
64%
level
22%
Maryland Bobcats scores more
14%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Pittsburgh Riverhounds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

US Open Cup: Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2–0 Maryland Bobcats

Pittsburgh Riverhounds beat Maryland Bobcats 2-0 in US Open Cup on April 5, 2022.

The match was played at Highmark Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.