Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1–2 Charleston Battery

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Charleston Battery

D. Griffin 11'

A. Rodriguez 55'

R. Rubin 45'

8/16/2025

USL Championship · Round 24Highmark Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Pittsburgh Riverhounds44%

×Draw27%

Charleston Battery29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pittsburgh RiverhoundsExpected goals in this matchCharleston Battery

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.04

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

1.34

Charleston Battery

1.04

Pittsburgh Riverhounds creates 29% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

1.16

creates per match

1.32

0.76

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

1.16

Charleston Battery

1.32

allows per match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

0.76

Charleston Battery

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pittsburgh Riverhounds+0.00on par

Charleston Battery+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pittsburgh Riverhounds ↓

Charleston Battery →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Pittsburgh Riverhounds or draw

71%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds or Charleston Battery

73%

Draw or Charleston Battery

56%

Winning margin

Pittsburgh Riverhounds wins by 2+

20%

Charleston Battery wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1+ goals

74%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2+ goals

39%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3+ goals

15%

Charleston Battery 1+ goals

65%

Charleston Battery 2+ goals

28%

Charleston Battery 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Pittsburgh Riverhounds (draw refunded)

60%

Charleston Battery (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.76 · 25 matches

Charleston Battery away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.52 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pittsburgh Riverhounds attack 1.16 + Charleston Battery defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.34

Charleston Battery attack 1.32 + Pittsburgh Riverhounds defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pittsburgh Riverhounds scores more

44%

level

27%

Charleston Battery scores more

29%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pittsburgh Riverhounds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

38'

45'

55'

64'

N. Dossantos← D. Martinez

69'

C. Ahl← R. Mertz

69'

C. Boone← B. Jacquesson

69'

B. Sample← R. Ydrach

72'

N. Houssou← A. Rodriguez

72'

C. Jennings← R. Rubin

86'

C. Allan← J. Kelly

86'

M. Edwards← M. Myers

Pittsburgh

Charleston

56

Zamudio

42

▼

7

8

16

5

10

⚽

▼

Rodriguez

6

Molloy

9

A

▼

Myers

14

⚽

▼

Rubin

29

▼

Kelly

1

Dick

16

▼

5

23

3

2

⚽

Griffin

10

▼

42

9

13

14

▼

Mertz

Manager: Robert Lilley

69'▲C. Ahl←▼R. Mertz

69'▲C. Boone←▼B. Jacquesson

69'▲B. Sample←▼R. Ydrach

Pittsburgh Riverhounds substitutes

6Broughton8Etou12Ahl18Garcia31Randolph7Boone15Sample

Manager: Benjamin Pirmann

64'▲N. Dossantos←▼D. Martinez

72'▲N. Houssou←▼A. Rodriguez

72'▲C. Jennings←▼R. Rubin

86'▲C. Allan←▼J. Kelly

86'▲M. Edwards←▼M. Myers

Charleston Battery substitutes

1Garner2Segbers4Allan34Edwards62Dossantos91Houssou26Jennings

Match Recap: Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Charleston Battery

Charleston Battery beat Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2-1 in USL Championship on August 16, 2025.

Goals: D. Griffin (11'), R. Rubin (45'), A. Rodriguez (55').

The match was played at Highmark Stadium.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Charleston Battery — USL Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Charleston Battery