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Piteå W vs Vittsjö W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Piteå W
Piteå W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vittsjö W
Vittsjö W
A. I. Ali 74'
4/26/2026DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 3LF Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Piteå W41%
×Draw26%
Vittsjö W33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Piteå W
1.41
Vittsjö W
1.25

Piteå W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 80 away

creates per match

Piteå W
1.32
Vittsjö W
1.26

allows per match

Piteå W
1.25
Vittsjö W
1.50

finishing

Piteå W+0.00on par
Vittsjö W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piteå W ↓

Vittsjö W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Piteå W or draw
67%
Piteå W or Vittsjö W
74%
Draw or Vittsjö W
59%

Winning margin

Piteå W wins by 2+
19%
Vittsjö W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Piteå W 1+ goals
76%
Piteå W 2+ goals
41%
Piteå W 3+ goals
17%
Vittsjö W 1+ goals
71%
Vittsjö W 2+ goals
36%
Vittsjö W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Piteå W (draw refunded)
55%
Vittsjö W (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piteå W at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 80 matches

Vittsjö W away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.50 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piteå W attack 1.32 + Vittsjö W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Vittsjö W attack 1.26 + Piteå W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Piteå W scores more
41%
level
26%
Vittsjö W scores more
33%

Piteå W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Piteå W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
E. VaughanVittsjö WVittsjö W · G
9.2

Match Events

72'
A. I. Ali← A. Hellekant
72'
M. Endacott-Foster← S. Sampson
74'
A. I. Ali↳ S. Matsubara
75'
J. Tunturi← S. Rewucha
75'
A. Altheden← S. Lynn
76'
M. Larsson← N. Persson
84'
M. Ekblom← C. Edlund
86'
N. Rolfsson← E. Klinga
86'
Milly Clegg← M. Cagle
90+1'
S. Andersson← S. Matsubara

Possession

59%Piteå

Shots

18Piteå

Pass accuracy

55%Piteå

Statistics

PiteåVittsjö
Overview
59%Possession41%
18Total Shots4
1.80Expected Goals (xG)1.11
12Corners5
12Fouls6
Shots
18Total Shots4
10On Target3
5Off Target1
3Blocked0
12Inside Box3
6Outside Box1
Passing
59%Possession41%
465Total Passes354
353Accurate Passes221
76%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
3Saves9
Discipline
12Fouls6
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
0Offsides0

Damallsvenskan: Piteå W 1–0 Vittsjö W

Piteå W beat Vittsjö W 1-0 in Damallsvenskan on April 26, 2026.

Goals: A. I. Ali (74').

Piteå W controlled possession (59%) and registered 18 shots to 4.

The match was played at LF Arena.