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Piteå W vs Växjö W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Piteå W
Piteå W
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Växjö W
Växjö W
S. Henriksson 85'
A. Imo 56' (pen)
E. Viklund 1'
D. Dupuy 28'
L. Russell 19' (pen)
4/14/2024DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 1LF Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Piteå W50%
×Draw24%
Växjö W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Piteå W
1.73
Växjö W
1.17

Piteå W creates 48% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 66 away

creates per match

Piteå W
1.32
Växjö W
1.08

allows per match

Piteå W
1.25
Växjö W
2.15

finishing

Piteå W+0.00on par
Växjö W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piteå W ↓

Växjö W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Piteå W or draw
74%
Piteå W or Växjö W
76%
Draw or Växjö W
50%

Winning margin

Piteå W wins by 2+
27%
Växjö W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Piteå W 1+ goals
82%
Piteå W 2+ goals
52%
Piteå W 3+ goals
25%
Växjö W 1+ goals
69%
Växjö W 2+ goals
33%
Växjö W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Piteå W (draw refunded)
66%
Växjö W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piteå W at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 80 matches

Växjö W away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.15 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piteå W attack 1.32 + Växjö W defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.73

Växjö W attack 1.08 + Piteå W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Piteå W scores more
50%
level
24%
Växjö W scores more
26%

Piteå W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Piteå W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
J. JohanssonPiteå WPiteå W · M
8.2

Match Events

1'
E. Viklund
19'
L. RussellPenalty
28'
D. Dupuy
33'
Þ. Ágústsdóttir← B. Níelsdóttir
56'
A. ImoPenalty
63'
Á. Johannesen← J. Johansson
63'
S. Swedman← E. Viklund
85'
S. Henriksson

Possession

55%Piteå

Shots

18Piteå

Pass accuracy

49%Piteå

Statistics

PiteåVäxjö
Overview
55%Possession45%
18Total Shots9
3.30Expected Goals (xG)1.84
7Corners3
16Fouls15
Shots
18Total Shots9
7On Target5
4Off Target3
7Blocked0
13Inside Box6
5Outside Box3
Passing
55%Possession45%
379Total Passes373
276Accurate Passes279
73%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls15
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Piteå W vs Växjö W

Piteå W beat Växjö W 3-2 in Damallsvenskan on April 14, 2024.

Goals: E. Viklund (1'), L. Russell (19' pen), D. Dupuy (28'), A. Imo (56' pen), S. Henriksson (85').

Piteå W controlled possession (55%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at LF Arena in Piteå.