Piteå W 4–1 Brommapojkarna W: Result & Stats

Piteå W

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Brommapojkarna W

10/13/2024

Damallsvenskan · Round 23LF Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Piteå W50%

×Draw23%

Brommapojkarna W27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Piteå WExpected goals in this matchBrommapojkarna W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.32

Piteå W

1.85

Brommapojkarna W

1.32

Piteå W creates 40% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.56

creates per match

1.25

1.39

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Piteå W

1.56

Brommapojkarna W

1.25

allows per match

Piteå W

1.39

Brommapojkarna W

2.15

-0.68scores less than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

Piteå W-0.68scores less

Brommapojkarna W-0.39scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piteå W ↓

Brommapojkarna W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Piteå W or draw

73%

Piteå W or Brommapojkarna W

77%

Draw or Brommapojkarna W

50%

Winning margin

Piteå W wins by 2+

28%

Brommapojkarna W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Piteå W 1+ goals

84%

Piteå W 2+ goals

55%

Piteå W 3+ goals

28%

Brommapojkarna W 1+ goals

73%

Brommapojkarna W 2+ goals

38%

Brommapojkarna W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Piteå W (draw refunded)

64%

Brommapojkarna W (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piteå W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.39 · 8 matches

Brommapojkarna W away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.15 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piteå W attack 1.56 + Brommapojkarna W defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.85

Brommapojkarna W attack 1.25 + Piteå W defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Piteå W scores more

50%

level

23%

Brommapojkarna W scores more

27%

Piteå W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Piteå W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff