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Piteå vs Sirius — Svenska Cupen 2019

Piteå
Piteå
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Sirius
Sirius
8/20/2025Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundLF Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Piteå17%
×Draw16%
Sirius66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Piteå
1.44
Sirius
2.88

Sirius creates 100% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

creates per match

Piteå
2.00
Sirius
2.76

allows per match

Piteå
3.00
Sirius
0.88

finishing

Piteå+0.00on par
Sirius+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piteå ↓

Sirius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Piteå or draw
34%
Piteå or Sirius
84%
Draw or Sirius
83%

Winning margin

Piteå wins by 2+
7%
Sirius wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Piteå 1+ goals
76%
Piteå 2+ goals
42%
Piteå 3+ goals
18%
Sirius 1+ goals
94%
Sirius 2+ goals
78%
Sirius 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

Piteå (draw refunded)
21%
Sirius (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piteå at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Sirius away — creates 2.76, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piteå attack 2.00 + Sirius defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sirius attack 2.76 + Piteå defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Piteå scores more
17%
level
16%
Sirius scores more
66%

Sirius at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Piteå 0–5 Sirius

Sirius beat Piteå 5-0 in Svenska Cupen on August 20, 2025.

The match was played at LF Arena in Piteå.