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Piteå vs IFK Norrkoping — Svenska Cupen 2019

Piteå
Piteå
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping
8/21/2024Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundLF Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Piteå21%
×Draw17%
IFK Norrkoping62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Piteå
1.68
IFK Norrkoping
2.92

IFK Norrkoping creates 74% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 20 away

creates per match

Piteå
2.00
IFK Norrkoping
2.85

allows per match

Piteå
3.00
IFK Norrkoping
1.35

finishing

Piteå+0.00on par
IFK Norrkoping+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piteå ↓

IFK Norrkoping →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Piteå or draw
38%
Piteå or IFK Norrkoping
83%
Draw or IFK Norrkoping
79%

Winning margin

Piteå wins by 2+
9%
IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Piteå 1+ goals
81%
Piteå 2+ goals
50%
Piteå 3+ goals
24%
IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals
94%
IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals
78%
IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Piteå (draw refunded)
25%
IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piteå at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 2.85, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piteå attack 2.00 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.68

IFK Norrkoping attack 2.85 + Piteå defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Piteå scores more
21%
level
17%
IFK Norrkoping scores more
62%

IFK Norrkoping at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Piteå 1–3 IFK Norrkoping

IFK Norrkoping beat Piteå 3-1 in Svenska Cupen on August 21, 2024.

The match was played at LF Arena in Piteå.