Piteå 2–0 Gefle IF: Result & Stats | Ettan - Norra

Piteå

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gefle IF

P. Abdulla 90+1', 79'

8/5/2021

Ettan - Norra · Norra - 9LF Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Piteå34%

×Draw24%

Gefle IF42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PiteåExpected goals in this matchGefle IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.61

Piteå

1.43

Gefle IF

1.61

Gefle IF creates 13% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 82 away

1.36

creates per match

1.37

1.85

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Piteå

1.36

Gefle IF

1.37

allows per match

Piteå

1.85

Gefle IF

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Piteå+0.00on par

Gefle IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piteå ↓

Gefle IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Piteå or draw

58%

Piteå or Gefle IF

76%

Draw or Gefle IF

66%

Winning margin

Piteå wins by 2+

16%

Gefle IF wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Piteå 1+ goals

76%

Piteå 2+ goals

42%

Piteå 3+ goals

17%

Gefle IF 1+ goals

80%

Gefle IF 2+ goals

48%

Gefle IF 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Piteå (draw refunded)

45%

Gefle IF (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piteå at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.85 · 67 matches

Gefle IF away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.49 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piteå attack 1.36 + Gefle IF defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.43

Gefle IF attack 1.37 + Piteå defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Piteå scores more

34%

level

24%

Gefle IF scores more

42%

Gefle IF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gefle IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

M. Mbye← A. Uddström

64'

T. Hansemon

68'

A. Näsholm← S. Friman

68'

I. Alhassan← P. Jonsson

75'

R. Andersson← M. Hällström

75'

N. Nilsson← T. Tshakasua

79'

P. Abdulla

88'

E. Gadzo← T. Hansemon

90+2'

L. Sahlin

90+4'

A. Eklund← S. Jamehdar

90+1'

P. Abdulla

Piteå

Gefle

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: J. Norberg

59'▲M. Mbye←▼A. Uddström

75'▲R. Andersson←▼M. Hällström

90+4'▲A. Eklund←▼S. Jamehdar

Piteå substitutes

MbyeAnderssonEklundKabunduMillbertStubbfält

Manager: M. Bengtsson

68'▲A. Näsholm←▼S. Friman

68'▲I. Alhassan←▼P. Jonsson

75'▲N. Nilsson←▼T. Tshakasua

88'▲E. Gadzo←▼T. Hansemon

Gefle IF substitutes

NäsholmAlhassanNilssonGadzoLindkvist

Ettan - Norra: Piteå 2–0 Gefle IF

Piteå beat Gefle IF 2-0 in Ettan - Norra on August 5, 2021.

Goals: P. Abdulla (79', 90+1').

The match was played at LF Arena in Piteå.

Piteå vs Gefle IF — Ettan - Norra 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ettan - Norra: Piteå 2–0 Gefle IF