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Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC vs Limón Black Star — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
PST
21:00
Limón Black Star
Limón Black Star
1/18/2026Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC43%
×Draw28%
Limón Black Star29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
1.27
Limón Black Star
1.00

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 36 away

creates per match

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
1.33
Limón Black Star
1.33

allows per match

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
0.67
Limón Black Star
1.22

finishing

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC+0.00on par
Limón Black Star+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC ↓

Limón Black Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC or draw
71%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC or Limón Black Star
72%
Draw or Limón Black Star
57%

Winning margin

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC wins by 2+
19%
Limón Black Star wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1+ goals
72%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2+ goals
36%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 3+ goals
14%
Limón Black Star 1+ goals
63%
Limón Black Star 2+ goals
26%
Limón Black Star 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (draw refunded)
59%
Limón Black Star (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Limón Black Star away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC attack 1.33 + Limón Black Star defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Limón Black Star attack 1.33 + Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC scores more
43%
level
28%
Limón Black Star scores more
29%

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC vs Limón Black Star — Match Preview

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC face Limón Black Star on January 18, 2026 in this Liga de Ascenso fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.