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Limón Black Star vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Limón Black Star
Limón Black Star
CANC
21:00
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
3/8/2026Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Limón Black Star49%
×Draw25%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Limón Black Star
1.56
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
1.04

Limón Black Star creates 50% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 14 away

creates per match

Limón Black Star
1.54
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
0.79

allows per match

Limón Black Star
1.29
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
1.57

finishing

Limón Black Star+0.00on par
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limón Black Star ↓

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Limón Black Star or draw
75%
Limón Black Star or Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
75%
Draw or Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
51%

Winning margin

Limón Black Star wins by 2+
25%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Limón Black Star 1+ goals
79%
Limón Black Star 2+ goals
46%
Limón Black Star 3+ goals
21%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1+ goals
65%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2+ goals
28%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Limón Black Star (draw refunded)
66%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limón Black Star at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limón Black Star attack 1.54 + Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC attack 0.79 + Limón Black Star defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Limón Black Star scores more
49%
level
25%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC scores more
25%

Limón Black Star at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Limón Black Star will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Limón Black Star vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC — Match Preview

Limón Black Star face Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC on March 8, 2026 in this Liga de Ascenso fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.