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Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC vs Futbol Consultants Moravia — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Futbol Consultants Moravia
Futbol Consultants Moravia
2/26/2026Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC50%
×Draw26%
Futbol Consultants Moravia24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
1.49
Futbol Consultants Moravia
0.93

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC creates 60% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 124 away

creates per match

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
1.33
Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.18

allows per match

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
0.67
Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.65

finishing

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC+0.00on par
Futbol Consultants Moravia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC ↓

Futbol Consultants Moravia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC or draw
76%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC or Futbol Consultants Moravia
74%
Draw or Futbol Consultants Moravia
50%

Winning margin

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC wins by 2+
25%
Futbol Consultants Moravia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1+ goals
77%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2+ goals
44%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 3+ goals
19%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 1+ goals
61%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 2+ goals
24%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (draw refunded)
68%
Futbol Consultants Moravia (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Futbol Consultants Moravia away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.65 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC attack 1.33 + Futbol Consultants Moravia defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.49

Futbol Consultants Moravia attack 1.18 + Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC scores more
50%
level
26%
Futbol Consultants Moravia scores more
24%

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2–0 Futbol Consultants Moravia

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC beat Futbol Consultants Moravia 2-0 in Liga de Ascenso on February 26, 2026.