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Pisa vs Trapani — Serie B 2018

Pisa
Pisa
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Trapani
Trapani
7/17/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 35Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Pisa55%
×Draw23%
Trapani22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa
1.81
Trapani
1.07

Pisa creates 69% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 19 away

creates per match

Pisa
1.52
Trapani
1.11

allows per match

Pisa
1.03
Trapani
2.11

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par
Trapani+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

Trapani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Pisa or draw
78%
Pisa or Trapani
77%
Draw or Trapani
45%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+
31%
Trapani wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals
84%
Pisa 2+ goals
54%
Pisa 3+ goals
27%
Trapani 1+ goals
66%
Trapani 2+ goals
29%
Trapani 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)
71%
Trapani (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.03 · 115 matches

Trapani away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.52 + Trapani defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.81

Trapani attack 1.11 + Pisa defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Pisa scores more
55%
level
23%
Trapani scores more
22%

Pisa at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Pisa 3–2 Trapani

Pisa beat Trapani 3-2 in Serie B on July 17, 2020.

The match was played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Pisa.