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Pisa vs Sudtirol — Serie B 2018

Pisa
Pisa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Sudtirol
Sudtirol
5/5/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 37Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Pisa45%
×Draw27%
Sudtirol28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa
1.41
Sudtirol
1.06

Pisa creates 33% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 78 away

creates per match

Pisa
1.52
Sudtirol
1.08

allows per match

Pisa
1.03
Sudtirol
1.29

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par
Sudtirol+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

Sudtirol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pisa or draw
72%
Pisa or Sudtirol
73%
Draw or Sudtirol
55%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+
22%
Sudtirol wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals
76%
Pisa 2+ goals
41%
Pisa 3+ goals
17%
Sudtirol 1+ goals
65%
Sudtirol 2+ goals
29%
Sudtirol 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)
61%
Sudtirol (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.03 · 115 matches

Sudtirol away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.52 + Sudtirol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.41

Sudtirol attack 1.08 + Pisa defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pisa scores more
45%
level
27%
Sudtirol scores more
28%

Pisa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pisa 2 – 2 Sudtirol

Pisa and Sudtirol drew 2-2 in Serie B on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Pisa.