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Pisa vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Pisa
Pisa
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Spezia
Spezia
1/27/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 22Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Pisa45%
×Draw26%
Spezia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa
1.44
Spezia
1.08

Pisa creates 33% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 98 away

creates per match

Pisa
1.52
Spezia
1.12

allows per match

Pisa
1.03
Spezia
1.36

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par
Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pisa or draw
72%
Pisa or Spezia
74%
Draw or Spezia
55%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+
22%
Spezia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals
76%
Pisa 2+ goals
42%
Pisa 3+ goals
18%
Spezia 1+ goals
66%
Spezia 2+ goals
29%
Spezia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)
62%
Spezia (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.03 · 115 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.52 + Spezia defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.44

Spezia attack 1.12 + Pisa defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pisa scores more
45%
level
26%
Spezia scores more
28%

Pisa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pisa vs Spezia

Spezia beat Pisa 3-2 in Serie B on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Pisa.