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Pisa vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Pisa
Pisa
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Spezia
Spezia
S. Benedetti 90+2'
R. Aya 87'
M. Marconi 31'
A. Ragusa 76', 69'
11/9/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 12Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Pisa45%
×Draw27%
Spezia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa
1.41
Spezia
1.06

Pisa creates 33% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 91 away

creates per match

Pisa
1.48
Spezia
1.13

allows per match

Pisa
1.00
Spezia
1.34

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par
Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pisa or draw
72%
Pisa or Spezia
73%
Draw or Spezia
55%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+
22%
Spezia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals
76%
Pisa 2+ goals
41%
Pisa 3+ goals
17%
Spezia 1+ goals
65%
Spezia 2+ goals
29%
Spezia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)
61%
Spezia (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 116 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.48 + Spezia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.41

Spezia attack 1.13 + Pisa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pisa scores more
45%
level
27%
Spezia scores more
28%

Pisa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
A. RagusaSpeziaSpezia · F
8.3

Match Events

17'
Alessandro De Vitis
22'
Michele Marconi
31'
M. Marconi↳ G. Masucci
35'
L. Vignali← S. Bastoni
57'
R. Gucher← M. Fabbro
62'
Robert Gucher
67'
G. Mastinu← M. Ricci
69'
A. Ragusa↳ G. Maggiore
72'
Nicholas Siega
72'
M. Pinato← N. Siega
76'
A. Ragusa↳ G. Maggiore
78'
D. Moscardelli← G. Masucci
85'
F. Ricci← E. Gyasi
87'
R. Aya↳ R. Gucher
90'
Michele Marconi
90'
Michele Marconi
90'
Soufiane Bidaoui
90+2'
S. Benedetti↳ M. Pinato

Possession

42%Pisa

Shots

11Pisa

Pass accuracy

49%Pisa

Statistics

PisaSpezia
Overview
42%Possession58%
11Total Shots13
5Corners6
15Fouls21
Shots
11Total Shots13
4On Target7
5Off Target6
2Blocked0
9Inside Box8
2Outside Box5
Passing
42%Possession58%
330Total Passes460
233Accurate Passes347
71%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls21
5Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
4Offsides2

Serie B: Pisa 3–2 Spezia

Pisa beat Spezia 3-2 in Serie B on November 9, 2019.

Goals: M. Marconi (31'), A. Ragusa (69', 76'), R. Aya (87'), S. Benedetti (90+2').

Spezia controlled possession (58%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Pisa.