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Pisa vs Sampdoria — Serie B 2018

Pisa
Pisa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sampdoria
Sampdoria
11/9/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 13Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Pisa47%
×Draw26%
Sampdoria27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa
1.52
Sampdoria
1.08

Pisa creates 41% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 58 away

creates per match

Pisa
1.52
Sampdoria
1.14

allows per match

Pisa
1.03
Sampdoria
1.53

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par
Sampdoria+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

Sampdoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pisa or draw
73%
Pisa or Sampdoria
74%
Draw or Sampdoria
53%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+
24%
Sampdoria wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals
78%
Pisa 2+ goals
45%
Pisa 3+ goals
20%
Sampdoria 1+ goals
66%
Sampdoria 2+ goals
29%
Sampdoria 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)
64%
Sampdoria (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.03 · 115 matches

Sampdoria away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.52 + Sampdoria defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sampdoria attack 1.14 + Pisa defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pisa scores more
47%
level
26%
Sampdoria scores more
27%

Pisa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pisa vs Sampdoria

Pisa beat Sampdoria 3-0 in Serie B on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Pisa.