Pisa 3–2 Monza: Result & Stats | Serie B

Pisa

AET

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Monza

G. Mastinu 90'

H. Hermannsson 9'

E. Torregrossa 1'

C. Gytkjær 101', 79'

L. Marrone 96'

José Machín 20'

5/29/2022

Serie B · Promotion Play-offs - FinalArena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Pisa39%

×Draw27%

Monza33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PisaExpected goals in this matchMonza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.16

Pisa

1.29

Monza

1.16

Pisa creates 11% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 61 away

1.48

creates per match

1.31

1.00

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Pisa

1.48

Monza

1.31

allows per match

Pisa

1.00

Monza

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par

Monza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

Monza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Pisa or draw

67%

Pisa or Monza

73%

Draw or Monza

61%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+

18%

Monza wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals

72%

Pisa 2+ goals

37%

Pisa 3+ goals

14%

Monza 1+ goals

69%

Monza 2+ goals

32%

Monza 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)

54%

Monza (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 116 matches

Monza away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.10 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.48 + Monza defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Monza attack 1.31 + Pisa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pisa scores more

39%

level

27%

Monza scores more

33%

Pisa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Gytkjær

Monza · F

8.3

Match Events

-5'

Giulio Donati

-5'

Eugenio Lamanna

1'

E. Torregrossa↳ P. Beruatto

9'

H. Hermannsson↳ P. Beruatto

20'

José Machín↳ Dany Mota

27'

42'

43'

57'

58'

66'

66'

G. Mastinu← E. Torregrossa

72'

C. Gytkjær← P. Ciurria

77'

M. D'Alessandro← L. Mazzitelli

79'

C. Gytkjær↳ Dany Mota

85'

Y. Cohen← G. Sibilli

85'

Ahmed Benali← M. Marin

87'

Ádám Nagy

89'

G. Masucci← Á. Nagy

90'

A. De Vitis← G. Puşcaş

90'

A. Colpani← L. Pirola

90'

G. Mastinu

96'

L. Marrone↳ S. Molina

101'

C. Gytkjær

104'

L. Mancuso← Dany Mota

104'

D. Bettella← José Machín

117'

Gaetano Masucci

118'

Davide Bettella

119'

G. Paletta← M. DAlessandro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PisaMonza

Overview

50%Possession50%

18Total Shots15

5Corners4

25Fouls15

Shots

18Total Shots15

6On Target7

6Off Target5

6Blocked3

10Inside Box9

8Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

394Total Passes418

263Accurate Passes279

67%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

25Fouls15

5Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Pisa vs Monza

Pisa beat Monza 3-2 in Serie B on May 29, 2022.

Goals: E. Torregrossa (1'), H. Hermannsson (9'), José Machín (20'), C. Gytkjær (79', 101'), G. Mastinu (90'), L. Marrone (96').

Pisa controlled possession (50%) and registered 18 shots to 15.

The match was played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Pisa.

Pisa vs Monza — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Pisa vs Monza