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Pisa vs Lecco — Serie B 2018

Pisa
Pisa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lecco
Lecco
10/24/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 1Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Pisa58%
×Draw23%
Lecco19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa
1.81
Lecco
0.94

Pisa creates 93% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 19 away

creates per match

Pisa
1.52
Lecco
0.84

allows per match

Pisa
1.03
Lecco
2.11

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par
Lecco+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

Lecco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Pisa or draw
81%
Pisa or Lecco
77%
Draw or Lecco
42%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+
33%
Lecco wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals
84%
Pisa 2+ goals
54%
Pisa 3+ goals
27%
Lecco 1+ goals
61%
Lecco 2+ goals
24%
Lecco 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)
75%
Lecco (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.03 · 115 matches

Lecco away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.52 + Lecco defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.81

Lecco attack 0.84 + Pisa defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Pisa scores more
58%
level
23%
Lecco scores more
19%

Pisa at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pisa 1 – 2 Lecco

Lecco beat Pisa 2-1 in Serie B on October 24, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Pisa.