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Pisa vs Empoli — Serie B 2018

Pisa
Pisa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Empoli
Empoli
S. Birindelli 35'
S. Żurkowski 76'
2/20/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 24Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Pisa43%
×Draw26%
Empoli31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa
1.44
Empoli
1.17

Pisa creates 23% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 61 away

creates per match

Pisa
1.48
Empoli
1.33

allows per match

Pisa
1.00
Empoli
1.39

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par
Empoli+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

Empoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pisa or draw
69%
Pisa or Empoli
74%
Draw or Empoli
57%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+
21%
Empoli wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals
76%
Pisa 2+ goals
42%
Pisa 3+ goals
18%
Empoli 1+ goals
69%
Empoli 2+ goals
33%
Empoli 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)
58%
Empoli (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 116 matches

Empoli away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.39 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.48 + Empoli defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Empoli attack 1.33 + Pisa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pisa scores more
43%
level
26%
Empoli scores more
31%

Pisa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
S. ŻurkowskiEmpoliEmpoli · M
7.7

Match Events

35'
S. Birindelli↳ N. Siega
46'
N. Bajrami← S. Moreo
65'
M. Marin← L. Mazzitelli
65'
L. Vido← S. Palombi
73'
Ryder Matos← A. La Mantia
73'
S. Żurkowski← S. Ricci
76'
S. Żurkowski↳ F. Parisi
81'
G. Mastinu← S. Birindelli
81'
F. Belli← A. De Vitis
85'
A. Terzić← F. Parisi
90+1'
A. Quaini← R. Gucher
90+2'
S. Damiani← L. Štulac

Possession

40%Pisa

Shots

15Pisa

Pass accuracy

45%Pisa

Statistics

PisaEmpoli
Overview
40%Possession60%
15Total Shots19
3Corners5
14Fouls9
Shots
15Total Shots19
4On Target3
10Off Target13
1Blocked3
10Inside Box14
5Outside Box5
Passing
40%Possession60%
326Total Passes464
218Accurate Passes374
67%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls9
4Offsides2

Pisa 1 – 1 Empoli

Pisa and Empoli drew 1-1 in Serie B on February 20, 2021.

Goals: S. Birindelli (35'), S. Żurkowski (76').

Empoli controlled possession (60%) and registered 19 shots to 15.

The match was played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Pisa.