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Pisa vs Bari — Serie B 2018

Pisa
Pisa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bari
Bari
P. Beruatto 12'
A. Hemsley 85'
9/16/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 5Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Pisa46%
×Draw27%
Bari27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pisa
1.43
Bari
1.02

Pisa creates 40% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 90 away

creates per match

Pisa
1.48
Bari
1.04

allows per match

Pisa
1.00
Bari
1.37

finishing

Pisa+0.00on par
Bari+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pisa ↓

Bari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pisa or draw
73%
Pisa or Bari
73%
Draw or Bari
54%

Winning margin

Pisa wins by 2+
23%
Bari wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pisa 1+ goals
76%
Pisa 2+ goals
42%
Pisa 3+ goals
17%
Bari 1+ goals
64%
Bari 2+ goals
27%
Bari 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pisa (draw refunded)
63%
Bari (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pisa at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 116 matches

Bari away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.37 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pisa attack 1.48 + Bari defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.43

Bari attack 1.04 + Pisa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pisa scores more
46%
level
27%
Bari scores more
27%

Pisa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
Ž. ŽužekBariBari · D
7.7

Match Events

9'
Gennaro Acampora
12'
P. Beruatto
35'
T. Barbieri← M. DAlessandro
45+5'
Maxime Leverbe
60'
G. Frabotta← G. Ricci
61'
Á. Nagy← Miguel Veloso
61'
J. Mlakar← S. Moreo
61'
I. Achik← M. Maita
62'
I. Touré← A. Arena
64'
Marius Marin
72'
M. Aramu← G. Morachioli
72'
A. Hemsley← M. Nasti
75'
Tomás Esteves← M. Valoti
78'
Ádám Nagy
81'
Akpa Chukwu Hemsley
85'
A. Hemsley↳ M. Dorval
87'
Ahmed Benali← G. Acampora
89'
Ádám Nagy
89'
Ádám Nagy

Possession

46%Pisa

Shots

7Pisa

Pass accuracy

49%Pisa

Statistics

PisaBari
Overview
46%Possession54%
7Total Shots10
3Corners5
18Fouls11
Shots
7Total Shots10
1On Target3
2Off Target4
4Blocked3
1Inside Box4
6Outside Box6
Passing
46%Possession54%
398Total Passes454
332Accurate Passes388
83%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
18Fouls11
4Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0

Pisa 1 – 1 Bari

Pisa and Bari drew 1-1 in Serie B on September 16, 2023.

Goals: P. Beruatto (12'), A. Hemsley (85').

Bari controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Pisa.